News & Views

ACA Research director and partner Ben Selwyn presented the results of the company’s third edition of its Fleets Insights report at the EROAD Fleet Day 2022, under the theme of Reimagining Fleet Management.

June is typically one of the biggest months of the year when it comes to new vehicle sales, as consumers and fleets look to take advantage of the End of Financial Year sales. We're still waiting to see how it plays out in 2022, given the different circumstances we're facing this year, but in the meantime here are five key themes we've seen emerge over the first five months of this year.

'New vehicle sales are currently dictated more by supply than demand.‘

This is the third piece in our series of AFI articles, exploring different aspects of consumer automotive finance.

The first month of 2022 vehicle sales data from VFACTS is out and makes for interesting reading. January saw 75,863 new vehicles sold (down 3,803 from last year), as OEMs continue to face global supply shortages. While there is hope these shortages will ease as the year continues, it's not all bad news. Where vehicles are available, sales results are strong, with Micro cars, People Movers, Utes, and Light SUVs all performing well. Looking at commercial vehicles beyond utes, we can also see strong results for Smaller Light Buses (<20 seats), and the Heavy Commercial segment. At a category level though, it's definitely commercial vehicles leading the way as we move into 2022.

Australian new vehicles sales in 2021 were surprisingly strong given the ongoing dual challenges of the pandemic and microprocessor shortages impacting global supply chains. Well over a million vehicles sold through the calendar year, which meant the total market increased by 14.5% from the 2020 result. This took it back towards the pre-pandemic volumes of 2019, but remains more than 100,000 units below 2018, highlighting the significant ground that’s still left to be made.

August 2021 continues the positive outlook for the new vehicle market, with sales remaining close to pre-COVID-19 levels despite ongoing lockdowns. Comparing August sales year on year, 2021 is also up 33%, suggesting that the market has overcome the worst of the impact of the pandemic. However, as we dive further into the data, we can see that August 2021 sales are primarily driven by Victoria and Queensland (which account for 86% of the August YoY increase). NSW and the ACT have both been hit particularly hard this month (down 7% and 28% respectively compared to August 2020) as lockdowns forced dealerships to shift to click and collect in NSW and close in ACT. 

The rise of electric vehicles and the role they will play in the future has a been a topic of speculation for years now. To many, it has remained just that. Speculation. The reality is that the electric vehicle revolution is currently taking place, as car manufacturers race to join the trend and governments are becoming increasingly proactive in promoting sustainable transport. The question is, what is the current landscape of electric vehicles in Australia and how is it going to look in the coming decades?

A strong start to 2021 was brought to an abrupt halt in June and July, as NSW's infection rates skyrocketed and new cases popped up nationwide, due to the onset of the Delta variant of COVID-19. Despite this variant being far more infectious than previous one, the nation did however (at least initially) appear better prepared. Businesses adapted to current circumstances where possible, while consumers appeared less uncertain. In this latest blog post, we unpack some of the key trends we’re seeing in the data.

Following the initial shock of the COVID 19 pandemic, we saw a resurgence in new vehicle sales through the first half of 2021. After more than a year under the spectre of a pandemic, consumers seem to have accepted the new reality, helping them overcome a level of the uncertainty that we’ve seen in the market through much of this period. The removal of international travel has also created opportunities, increasing demand for off-road capable and family vehicles as these international trips are replaced with domestic ones. These trends are reflected in this year’s sales numbers, where we can see a steady recovery across passenger, SUV, and LCV. This has been consistent so far, with each month comfortably outperforming the same period last year.