News & Views

ACA Research director and partner Ben Selwyn presented the results of the company’s third edition of its Fleets Insights report at the EROAD Fleet Day 2022, under the theme of Reimagining Fleet Management.

June is typically one of the biggest months of the year when it comes to new vehicle sales, as consumers and fleets look to take advantage of the End of Financial Year sales. We're still waiting to see how it plays out in 2022, given the different circumstances we're facing this year, but in the meantime here are five key themes we've seen emerge over the first five months of this year.

'New vehicle sales are currently dictated more by supply than demand.‘

This is the third piece in our series of AFI articles, exploring different aspects of consumer automotive finance.

In this second piece in our series of AFI articles, we look at the finance channel (i.e. who actually sells the finance to vehicle purchasers), and how this is changing over time. Click here to read the first piece, which explore the finance purchasing customer journey.

Welcome to the first of three articles, exploring different aspects of the 2022 Automotive Finances Insights study. In this one, we introduce the customer journey, looking at how it can vary across different consumer segments.

More than 9 million Australian households currently own at least 1 vehicle, with over a third (3.2 million) having used finance to fund at least some of their purchases. While there is no doubt that this offers significant opportunities for OEMs, financiers, and other associated businesses, it is important to remember that these purchases can follow extremely different paths. It is therefore critical to understand the customer vehicle selection and finance journey, and the key needs of consumers as they move through its different stages.

Over the past couple of years, we've heard a lot about decreased mobility (i.e. people working from home with their car spending more time sitting in the garage. Various data sources support this, demonstrating that overall levels of movement have been down through the pandemic, with more localised activities (e.g. trips to neighbourhood parks) becoming more common. 

The first month of 2022 vehicle sales data from VFACTS is out and makes for interesting reading. January saw 75,863 new vehicles sold (down 3,803 from last year), as OEMs continue to face global supply shortages. While there is hope these shortages will ease as the year continues, it's not all bad news. Where vehicles are available, sales results are strong, with Micro cars, People Movers, Utes, and Light SUVs all performing well. Looking at commercial vehicles beyond utes, we can also see strong results for Smaller Light Buses (<20 seats), and the Heavy Commercial segment. At a category level though, it's definitely commercial vehicles leading the way as we move into 2022.

Australian new vehicles sales in 2021 were surprisingly strong given the ongoing dual challenges of the pandemic and microprocessor shortages impacting global supply chains. Well over a million vehicles sold through the calendar year, which meant the total market increased by 14.5% from the 2020 result. This took it back towards the pre-pandemic volumes of 2019, but remains more than 100,000 units below 2018, highlighting the significant ground that’s still left to be made.

August 2021 continues the positive outlook for the new vehicle market, with sales remaining close to pre-COVID-19 levels despite ongoing lockdowns. Comparing August sales year on year, 2021 is also up 33%, suggesting that the market has overcome the worst of the impact of the pandemic. However, as we dive further into the data, we can see that August 2021 sales are primarily driven by Victoria and Queensland (which account for 86% of the August YoY increase). NSW and the ACT have both been hit particularly hard this month (down 7% and 28% respectively compared to August 2020) as lockdowns forced dealerships to shift to click and collect in NSW and close in ACT.